VICTORIA - Ten days before British Columbians vote, the B.C. Conservatives are favoured to win the most seats, according to the October 13 update of The Writ’s B.C. Election Tracker.
The projection gives the Conservatives, led by Lorne Doerkson, a 51-40 seat edge over David Eby’s New Democrats, with the Conservatives winning the most seats in 68 per cent of simulations and holding a two-point lead in the vote projection. The model notes many close races could swing in either direction.
It is not impossible that the Greens retain the balance of power, as they did in 2017, but that is the outcome of only 5 per cent of simulations.
A Research Co. survey factored into the update showed the Conservatives leading 44-42 in decided voter support.
Voters will elect 93 MLAs on Final Voting Day, Saturday, October 24. Advance voting runs October 16 to 21 from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. local time, and voters can cast a ballot at any advance voting location in the province. The last day to request a vote-by-mail package online or by phone is October 18.
There are 355 provincial candidates running this year, up from 322 in the 2024 election. The final count is planned for November 6 to 10.
Projections are statistical models based on polling averages, not predictions of the outcome. Poll results are a snapshot of opinion at the time they were taken.
(Source: The Writ B.C. Election Tracker, October 13, 2026; Source: Elections BC 2026 Provincial Election page, October 2026)
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