SURREY, B.C. - The B.C. Conservatives hold a five-point lead over the NDP with eight days left in the provincial election campaign, according to a new Pallas Data poll released October 13.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives under interim leader Lorne Doerkson sit at 43 per cent, while the BC NDP under Premier David Eby has 38 per cent. The Greens under Emily Lowan are at 11 per cent, OneBC under Dallas Brodie at 5 per cent, and CentreBC under Elenore Sturko at 2 per cent.
The tightest battleground is Metro Vancouver, where the two main parties are tied at 41 per cent each. That tie puts Surrey’s provincial ridings squarely in play, with neither party holding a clear edge in the region that will likely decide the October 24 vote. The Conservatives lead 51 to 37 per cent in the rest of B.C., while Vancouver Island is a four-way contest with the Conservatives at 35, the NDP at 33, the Greens at 18 and OneBC at 13 per cent, the party’s best regional number.
Doerkson also leads Eby on the question of who would make the best premier. Thirty-five per cent of all voters picked Doerkson, compared with 29 per cent for Eby, 13 per cent for Lowan, 6 per cent for Brodie and 2 per cent for Sturko. Doerkson leads 36 to 34 per cent on best premier in Metro Vancouver.
The age breakdowns show the Conservatives ahead in every group except voters aged 50 to 64, where the two parties are tied at 36 per cent. Among voters 18 to 34, the Conservatives lead 51 to 35 per cent, though Pallas cautions that only 46 interviews sit behind that number before weighting, so it should be treated gently. The Conservatives lead 42 to 40 per cent among voters 35 to 49 and 45 to 41 per cent among those 65 and older. Men back the Conservatives 46 to 37 per cent, while women are nearly split at 41 per cent Conservative to 39 per cent NDP, with 14 per cent of women backing the Greens compared with 9 per cent of men.
A majority of British Columbians, 53 per cent, say the province is headed in the wrong direction, while 32 per cent say it is on the right track and 15 per cent are unsure. Wrong-direction sentiment peaks at 62 per cent among voters 18 to 34 and 58 per cent on Vancouver Island.
“Five points with 11 days left is a lead the NDP can still close,” Pallas Data founder and CEO Dr. Joseph Angolano said in the release. “The problem is that Eby sits below 40% and most voters think the province is on the wrong track.”
The poll surveyed 513 adults eligible to vote in B.C. on October 10 and 11 using automated telephone interviews on landlines and cellphones. The sample was weighted by age, gender and region according to the 2021 Census. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, with higher margins in each subsample.
(Source: Pallas Data)
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